The Departure of X That Never Happened

Discussion about a notable shift from Elon Musk’s X to Meta’s Threads is heating up on Threads itself. Users share stories of spotting newcomers and friends migrating platforms, with some going as far as deactivating their X profiles. Despite the buzz and trending hashtags like “Xodus” and “TwitterExodus,” indicating a significant platform transition, evidence from app and web activity data does not confirm a substantial migration.

Since its introduction worldwide in July 2023, Threads, established by Meta as a Twitter-esque network but with less focus on political content, has seen a consistent increase in its user base. Recently, it hit over 200 million monthly users, a jump from 150 million in April 2024.

This week on Threads witnessed numerous conversations, garnering hundreds of responses, around the talked-about migration from X. Participants shared experiences of their feeds filling up with updates from individuals who chose to leave X permanently.

Describing the situation as overwhelming, one Threads participant, @wanderscotwild_art, alongside others like @gazzaloz, reflected on the massive flow of users to Threads or reported a significant rise in their follower count. The catalyst for this migration seems to be Elon Musk’s recent controversial involvement in British politics and his sharing of misleading information, which has led to a backlash and, potentially, the platform switch for some users.

Yet, an in-depth look into the actual size of the migration discussed on Threads reveals an unexpected finding: data analysis indicates little to no substantial change in user numbers or app downloads for Threads, with X even noting modest growth according to some reports.

Sensor Tower, an app intelligence agency, noted a 2% growth in daily active users for X globally from July to August 2024, with Threads’ daily active users staying relatively constant. App installation numbers for both platforms showed no variation in August compared to July, pointing to a stable user interest.

In the U.S., however, both X and Threads saw a marginal increase in daily users, with a noticeable difference in download trends indicating a potential shift, although this doesn’t align with speculations of a U.K.-driven exodus.

Similarly, Similarweb’s analysis of X and Threads’ web and app engagement found fluctuations within normal ranges, without any evidence supporting the supposed shift. Despite discussions, X.com’s traffic marginally increased, while Threads experienced a slight decline.

Given these insights, it might be that the exodus narrative, bolstered by Threads’ algorithm highlighting discussions around leaving X, feels more significant than the actual user movement. Moreover, it’s possible that individuals who had previously joined Threads are simply reactivating their accounts, contributing to the storyline without affecting new app installations.

Meta has not released any recent statistics, aside from mentioning the 200 million monthly user milestone. Meanwhile, X continues to navigate competition not only from Threads but also from decentralized platforms and emerging startups vying for the attention of social media users.